New DoE-funded study highlights bad and worse heat-wave predictions for climate change scenarios

Claudia Tebaldi, and Michael Wehne, climate scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, respectively, have just published a study, funded by the Department of Energy, titled Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5,  which describes the effects of climate change on heatwaves, and the disparity in different populations’ exposure to, and ability to adapt to them. The authors state that heatwaves, severe, global temperature anomalies that occur about every 20 years, will be more frequent, and more severe in the next hundred years. Climate change mitigation programs will help some, but the implications are such that governments around the world will still need to provide large amounts of resources for vulnerable peoples, the elderly, young, and low-income urban populations, regardless of potential stringent mitigation efforts.

The report is especially useful for policy-making purposes, because it performs cost-benefit analyses of the large, immediate costs of heatwave adaptation efforts versus their relatively uncertain, long-term, and so discounted, benefits, and still finds the quantified, and monetary benefits to outweigh the costs.

Additionally, the fact that the study is funded through taxpayer money adds political clout to the policy recommendations.

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/19559/searing-heat-waves-detailed-study-future-climate

http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2016/02/24/stories/1060032886

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1605-5

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