This article explains an investigation into the problem of GCMs producing different results when applied to the same site because of the uncertainty surrounding oceanic and atmospheric shifts. Researchers at the University of Melbourne applied one simulation model to the rate of water runoff in WA’s out-west, the method used rain and temperature projection from a global climate model over southwest regional catchments using the “moderate scenario (A1B).” As we learned in Module 4, the A1B is a more optimistic model that is characterized by rapid economic growth, development, and sharing of technologies. The model generated huge fluctuations because when the physics of the ocean or atmosphere change even slightly the GCM model gave different results. This is where the researchers began to doubt the models accuracy. Results for future projects in south-west catchments suggest a drop in rainfall of between 0-40 %. Although there is concern with the accuracy, researchers said “all of them show reductions in precipitation for the second half of the century, increased temperatures, and reduction of run-off, [which] is concerning.” This was an interesting article about how GCMs are used to predict future scenarios and just like we learned in module 4, they are gloomy predictions.

Reference:

Fernandes, Aaron. “Climate modeling comes into focus as Paris heats up” Science Network. 30 November 2015. Retrieved from http://www.sciencewa.net.au/topics/technology-a-innovation/item/3938-climate-modelling-comes-into-focus-as-paris-heats-up