Geo-engineering is the deliberate manipulation of physical, chemical, or biological aspects of the Earth system (AGU, 2012). This strategy is becoming necessary due to sluggish mitigation efforts that are not enough to slow climate change, let alone undo changes resulting from past emissions. As well as the predicted inability to manage climate change by adaptation alone because of the wide range of impacts such as sea level rise, species extinction, drought, flooding, increased hurricane activity, and more. According to an applied physicist at Carnegie Mellon University, “we’re at the point where it would be a mistake not to better understand what might be possible or whether it might work” (Engelhaupt, 2010). It is important to research how effective geo-engineering could be at reducing carbon dioxide concentration or exerting a cooling influence on Earth to reverse the temperature increase.

Examples of geo-engineering inventions include releasing sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere to mimic cooling associated with volcanic eruptions, releasing seawater into the clouds to increase albedo, and releasing iron rich fertilizer into the ocean to enhance plankton growth. Nevertheless, each of these inventions has associated side effects. None of these ideas have been tested in the real world due to uncertainty and lack of funding. Pumping reflective solid particles into the stratosphere could block 2% of the sun’s rays, reducing temperatures by 2 degrees Celsius, and in turn balancing the warming effect of doubling CO₂ above pre-industrial levels. The cost however, $10 billion per year, along with the possibilities for acid rain, reduction of rain during Asian and African summer monsoons, and slowing recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole by 30 years, make this a great idea if the damage for some is worth a 2 degree cooling. The problems associated with manipulation of clouds include impacts to precipitation patterns. Cloud seeding leads to uneven precipitation rates that could leave the equator dry and Amazon flooded, but could also cool the Artic enough to restore disappearing sea ice. Injecting the ocean with fertilizer to enhance growth of plankton that in turn ingests CO₂ is the only invention out of all discussed that has been implemented. Geo-engineering has not received adequate attention and funding that could reduce the negative side effects and optimize the positive effects on the Earth system.

There is no question that concentration of CO₂ will continue causing temperature rise if mitigation, adaptation, and/or geo-engineering strategies are not executed. Mitigation strategies might include finding ways to limit warming, flooding, and drought. However, there is damage that cannot be reversed with mitigation or adaptation alone. Geo-engineering has the potential to help society cope with climate change and the risks of adverse consequences. More funding is needed to support geo-engineers in finding ways to optimize cooling, while limiting additional negative impacts to the Earth system.

Engelhaupt, Erika. “Engineering a Cooler Earth.” JSTOR. Science News, 5 June 2010.        Web. http://www.jstor.org.ezaccess.libraries.psu.edu/stable/pdf/25677901.pdf?acceptT C=true

“Geoengineering Solutions to Climate Change Require Enhanced Research, Consideration of Societal Impacts, and Policy Development.” Science Policy. American Geophysical Union, 13 Dec. 2009. Web.   http://sciencepolicy.agu.org/files/2013/07/AGU_Geoengineering_Statement.pdf

According to the Module for this week annual losses of colonies averaged about 33% each year and 1/3 of this percentage is from colony collapse disorder (CCD). In an article published in Arizona news, a study on honey bee larvae performed by Arizona State University’s School of Life Sciences was explained. The cause of decline, explains researcher is caused by a combination of stressors such as parasites, pathogens, pesticides, environmental changes and malnutrition. The objective of the study was to better understand the resilience of the bee colonies that survive through tough living conditions. Researchers found that when bees are challenged nutritionally by being denied food, it changes the fundamental physiology that affects them when they are adults. They also found that by starving bees during their development, they become more resistant to tough living conditions and CCD. The more starved these bees are, the more susceptible to disease they are. The study urges beekeepers to keep bees as close to their natural state as possible meaning no pesticides or antibiotics. Also to stay away from agricultural and urban practices. Researcher from this study concludes by adding, “the effort of the scientists and beekeepers to understand bees and save bees have resulted in significant enhancement of honey bee health by improving bee management practices.” This might be true but colonies are still collapsing and honey bees are still on the decline. There is always more to do.

http://www.prescottenews.com/index.php/education/item/27488-honey-bees-asu-researchers-study-may-help-improve-lifespan

Having a summer home along the Eastern Shore in Maryland, I wanted to find information in the news about rising sea levels along the coast of Maryland. In a new report on sea level rise explains that Maryland should plan for a sea level rise of 2 feet by 2050. This report was produced by the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science as a response to Governor O’Malley’s Executive Order on Climate Change and “Coast Smart” Construction. The Governor made a statement on the issue of sea level rise saying, “we must stay abreast of the latest climate science to ensure that we have a sound understanding of our vulnerability and are making informed decisions about how best to protect our land, infrastructure, and most importantly, the citizens of Maryland.” Much like in the lab for this week, this report includes maps predicting the 2ft, 4ft, and 6ft flood projections for the coast of Maryland. Due to the fact Maryland has 3,100 mils of tidal shoreline and low lying rural and urban lands that could potentially be impacted. The reports experts’ best estimate for the amount of sea-level rise in 2050 is 1.4ft. The estimates are based on different contributors to sea level rise such as thermal expansion of ocean, melting glaciers in Greenland and Antarctic, changing ocean dynamics such as the slowing of the Gulf Stream, and vertical land movement. To combat this issue, Governor O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. Just 5 year later, O’Malley ordered an executive order that requires State agencies to consider the risk of coastal flooding and sea level rise to capital projects. Since then, the Department of the Environment and the Federal Emergency Management Agency have updated Flood Insurance Rate Maps. Having a house in Rock Hall, Maryland, I was directly affected by this executive order. My family’s insurance has changed based on these maps since the executive order was made. Sea level rise is only one impact from climate change on the Chesapeake Bay which is the water my house sits just 10 feet from. Other influences include algae blooms, desalinization, and sea surface temperature rises. All create a scary outlook for my summer home but there is time for mitigation, preservation, and conservation to decrease the vulnerability along the coast.

Reference: “Sea Level Rise Projections for Maryland.” Sea Level Rise Projections for Maryland. University Of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, n.d. Web. 07 Apr. 2016. <http://www.umces.edu/sea-level>.

In a United Nations breaking news article from earlier last month, The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced that a timely agricultural assistance for the upcoming rainy season is essential to help the drought. The drought in Ethiopia is worsened by the strong El Nino that has been impacting the lives and livelihoods of farmers and herders. The reason Ethiopia is struggling so badly is due to the drought that has led to successive crop failures and widespread livestock fatalities. FAO estimates taht 10.2 million people are not food insecure. The rainy season in Ethiopia is referred to as the belg which has been delayed. The rainy season, for Ethiopians, provide 85% of the nations food supplies.

In Module 9, impacts on different continents was explained to be controlled by the ability of the society to cope. The inability of Ethiopia to cope with the prolonged drought and strong El Nino, both enhanced by climate change, is due largely to the fact that they are a developing nation. Beatrice Mwangi, resilience and livelihoods director for World Vision explains this concept well, “[severe drought] is going to be the new norm. So our responses need to appreciate that.. there is climate change, and it’s going to affect the people.” Because agriculture in developing countries is more vulnerable to climate change than already developed countries, impact will depend on the ability of places like Ethiopia to adapt.

References:

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=53381#.VwGGJBIrJYg

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/16/drought-high-temperatures-el-nino-36m-people-africa-hunger

According to the National Geographic Video in this weeks Module, a drought occurs when “more water is used than is replenished, a balance between supply and demand.” Droughts can last up to years and people are a main reason why droughts have been occurring more often. The video also explains that droughts are a natural occurrence but this is changing with more research into climate change. A New York Times article from the beginning of April explains how scientists say the drought in California is being worsened by global warming.

Unlike how the video explains that droughts are from water being used and not replaced at the same rate, this article argues that California’s drought is a result of not enough rain AND too much heat. Because of the feedback that exists when temperatures are warmer than normal, evaporation comes with that drying out rivers and the soil. The drought in California is the worst in 120 years with some studies suggesting it is the worst in more than a thousand years. Deke Arndt, the chief of the climate monitoring branch of the National Climatic Data Center explains that “unless something dramatic happens very soon, we’re realistically looking to next fall as the next opportunity for putting a big dent in the drought.”

Thinking about the drought from a policy standpoint, there is much that could be done to conserve water in California. Restrictions on when water can be used for recreational use and restricting how much water farmers can use for agriculture are ways to mitigate the water crisis. If nothing is done, the people of California will be forced to reduce their consumption because there will be no natural water left it will all have to be brought in and will be an expensive highly demanded product.

Reference: Fountain, Henry. “California Drought is Worsened by Global Warming, Scientists Say.” New York Times. 1 April 2015. Web. Retrieved: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/02/science/california-drought-is-worsened-by-global-warming-scientists-say.html

In September of 2015, Ohio experienced an algae outbreak worse than any other in the Rivers history. Toxic blue and green algae covered two thirds of the 981 mile river. The toxin that overwhelmed the River was called microcystin. In Lake Erie the year prior to the outbreak in Ohio, the yearly bloom took place during the peak municipal water intake for Toledo which caused the city to shut down drinking water supplies to over 400,000 people for 4 days in August. This is a problem for humans who depend on drinking water, but is even worse for the animals living in the water.

The blooms of blue-green algae that covered the Ohio River last year are from cyanobacteria as described in Module 7. Also known as CyanoHABs, are known to cause gastrointestinal, respiratory, allergic and neurological responses, and potential liver damage in humans. The reason why these blooms are harmful to organisms is because the cyanobacteria can block incoming solar radiation which causes lack of oxygen to organisms. In this particular bloom that effected the Ohio River, the cause was known. Tides of phosphates and nitrates enter the river from fertilized fields, cattle feedlots and leaky sewers, and provide food for the algae.

Having a house in Maryland on the Chesapeake Bay, I am highly concerned with blue-green algae blooms. Much like the Ohio River, the Chesapeake Bay Watershed is surrounded by farms that produce the runoff that is needed to fuel the outbreak. As an Earth Science Policy major, a long term goal of mine is to work on tightening up regulations for agriculture that takes place where it could potentially end up in the watershed. Scary to think about swimming in a bay with cow poop surrounding you, but also great motivation to work towards a cleaner, healthier watershed in years to come.

Reference:

Wines, Michael. “Toxic Algae Outbreak Overwhelms a Polluted Ohio River.” New York Times. 30 September 2015. Web. Retrieved: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/us/toxic-algae-outbreak-overwhelms-a-polluted-ohio-river.html

In this New York Times article, biologist Dr. Kawaguchi explains his research into Antarctic krill populations. In his lab, he observed the effects of carbon dioxide being pumped into his lab simulation on the krill. He witnessed the carbon dioxide killing the eggs. The importance of this organism in the ocean ecosystem is due to the fact most marine life is a direct predator of krill or just one step removed. As krill stocks are diminishing, there is less food for squid, whales, seals, fish, penguins, and sea birds.

The reason for the krill dying off in such large numbers? Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the water resulting in greater levels of ocean acidification, explains Dr. Kawaguchi. “If we continue with business as usual, and we don’t act on reducing carbon emissions, in that case, there could be a 20-70% reduction in Antarctic krill by 2100 [and] by 2300, the Southern Ocean might not be suitable for krill reproduction.”

Dr. Rintoul, an oceanographer with Australia’s national science agency, explains “it is like a conveyor belt carrying heat and carbon dioxide to the ocean, this is one reason it can absorb so much heat, the key question is how the acidification caused by the update of carbon dioxide will affect ecosystems.” We learned in Module 5 that the chemistry of carbon in seawater is complex but it is crucial in understanding the way the global carbon cycle operates and explains why the oceans can swallow up so much atmospheric CO2 without having their own CO2 concentrations rise very much. However, this article is a great example of small disturbances in CO2 concentrations in the ocean making a large impact on the wildlife. The area where the krill are reproducing is in very cold water, we learned in the Module that cold parts of the oceans absorb more atmospheric CO2 than warm regions do. As oceans take up more carbon dioxide, this article explains how sea animals are finding it more difficult to build shells and exoskeletons. Dr. Kawaguchi explains that krill are known to be a remarkably adaptable and abundant animal, but he fears that the krill may not be able to adapt fast enough.

Changing the chemical composition of the ocean may be the result of human interaction with the atmosphere so we should be responsible for slowing the changes, conserving the ecology, and making sure species that are crucial to the food chain are not killed off because of anthropogenic reasons.

Reference: Innis, Michelle. “Warming Oceans May Threaten Krill, a Cornerstone of the Antarctic Ecosystem” 19 October 2015. New York Times. Retrieved from: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/20/science/australia-antarctica-krill-climate-change-ocean.html?_r=0

This article explains an investigation into the problem of GCMs producing different results when applied to the same site because of the uncertainty surrounding oceanic and atmospheric shifts. Researchers at the University of Melbourne applied one simulation model to the rate of water runoff in WA’s out-west, the method used rain and temperature projection from a global climate model over southwest regional catchments using the “moderate scenario (A1B).” As we learned in Module 4, the A1B is a more optimistic model that is characterized by rapid economic growth, development, and sharing of technologies. The model generated huge fluctuations because when the physics of the ocean or atmosphere change even slightly the GCM model gave different results. This is where the researchers began to doubt the models accuracy. Results for future projects in south-west catchments suggest a drop in rainfall of between 0-40 %. Although there is concern with the accuracy, researchers said “all of them show reductions in precipitation for the second half of the century, increased temperatures, and reduction of run-off, [which] is concerning.” This was an interesting article about how GCMs are used to predict future scenarios and just like we learned in module 4, they are gloomy predictions.

Reference:

Fernandes, Aaron. “Climate modeling comes into focus as Paris heats up” Science Network. 30 November 2015. Retrieved from http://www.sciencewa.net.au/topics/technology-a-innovation/item/3938-climate-modelling-comes-into-focus-as-paris-heats-up